A couple of days ago the worst loss of human life on French soil since World War II occurred. The difference between being at war and what happened was (much like 9/11) this was a deliberate attack on non-combatants. Terrorism is defined as "the use of violence and intimidation in the pursuit of political aims."
To most of us it has very little to do with political aims, it has more to do with creating terror with a civilian population. Yes, there have been organisations that have been defined as terrorist groups that we all look back on now and think they were probably in the right - the ANC would be one example of these. The big difference here is that this is not a group of displaced people trying to fight injustice within their own borders.
In order to really understand what is going on we've got to look at what it is that ISIS wants to achieve, What they desire is a totalitarian Islamic caliphate within which Sharia law is practiced. What is a caliphate? Let's go again to a dictionary definition:
"A caliphate (Arabic: خِلافة khilāfa) is a form of Islamic government led by a caliph (Arabic: خَليفة khalīfah pronunciation (help. · info))—a person considered a political and religious successor to the Islamic prophet, Muhammad (Muḥammad ibn ʿAbdullāh), and a leader of the entire Muslim community."
Make no mistake, this will be an immense stretch of land (most probably at least two). One encompassing North Africa and the Middle East and another, which has been established already (or shall we say it's been started) encompassing Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore (they hope) and Indonesia.
To my mind, and this entire piece is obviously nothing more than my own opinion, the latter is the more insidious of the two. North Africa and the Middle East are already largely destabilised, the Middle East largely thanks to the actions of one George W Bush in his immense over reaction in the aftermath of the World Trade Centre bombings in New York in 2001. It is almost understandable that the people of Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and other countries in the region would happily embrace any leadership regime that promised some degree of stability. The entire region has been on tenterhooks for more than a decade.
I'm not going to go too deep into the North Africa / Middle East aspect of the situation in this post. What I really would like to take a look at is what's going on in South East Asia. The region is widely perceived as a tinderbox for a wide range of reasons. Here's what we need to consider about the ASEAN states and why they are actually quite a soft target.
The South China Sea
The thing that connects ASEAN is the South China Sea (also known as the West Philippine Sea). It is immensely resource rich and it has been the target of an illegal occupation by China for some years. Island chains in the region including the Spratleys and the Paracels have recently become the target of some very serious talking on the part of ASEAN and some very serious action on the part of the Chinese. As has, for that matter, The Scarborough Shoal - just 124 nautical miles from the coast of Luzon - quite clearly within the Philippines exclusive economic zone (that's another blog post).
The only reason that the South China Sea dispute gets a mention in the context of the recent attacks in Paris is that it has taken the focus of the various governments in the region away from certain matters that are of some importance to the Islamic state.
Brunei
Brunei is the first country in the region to come out and say that they are going to practice Sharia Law, it applies to Muslims and Non-Muslims alike and we don't care. As is pointed out in this excellent post in the Diplomat the implications of this are basically that anyone there who is not prepared to accept this is going to leave. 33% of the population of Brunei is non-Muslim. The Sultan doesn't seem to mind. This is important because of where Brunei is.
The tinderbox that is the island of Borneo
If we take a look at a bit of Islamic propaganda for a moment it's not difficult to see why the Kalimantan region of Indonesian Borneo being adjacent to the first wealthy country in Asia to openly start practicing Sharia Law may be a boon for the extremists. The above link refers to an article, the headline of which reads: "Ten Thousand Muslims in South Kalimantan, Indonesia Demand the Establishment of the Caliphate".
That didn't take all that long now, did it?
What else makes up Borneo? The Malaysian states of Sabah and Sarawak. The interesting thing about these two states is that they are probably the least "Muslim" of the Malaysian states. That said they are still overseen by a government which is certainly sympathetic to Islamic law and Islamic ideals.
While Malaysia is technically constitutionally secular the vast majority of government posts are filled by Malay Muslims. Even in this ostensibly secular state it is still a requirement that your religion be completed on all government paperwork, published on your identity documents. If you are found to be (one small example) a Muslim who is eating during the fasting period of the holy month (sundown to sunset) you can face legal retribution. Take a look at this article regarding ethnic Chinese and Indian children being forced to eat in a changing room out of respect to their Muslim classmates if you'd like to get an idea of just how serious it is in parts of the country.
So, we've now established that the island of Borneo (which makes up a pretty big hunk of South East Asia's geography) is governed entirely by three countries:
Brunei: Currently practicing Sharia Law. Where you can get stoned to death for sodomy (sorry, sweetie, better not bring your rainbow flag to Bandar Seri Begawan any time soon).
Malaysia: Which is the world's only secular Muslim state. One which has been actively engaged in an affirmative action campaign toward Muslim citizens since independence and one where citizens who do not practice the Islamic faith admit to feeling like second class citizens.
Indonesia: The world's most populous Muslim Country. One which openly says that if you do not believe in God you are in breach of the law (although you are allowed to practice a religion that is not Islam, for now). If you go so far as posting on Facebook that God doesn't exist you will be locked up though. Much like Brunei the Indonesian province of Aceh has now extended Sharia law to cover non-Muslims.
What is just to the East of Borneo?
If we head east from the Malaysian port of Sandakan we head into the Malaysia, Philippine border. The Philippines is the world's third largest Catholic country, coming in just behind Brazil and Mexico. The island chains that separate the only Christian nation in Asia from the island of Borneo are a complete nightmare.
The chain of idyllic tropical islands that run from the east coast of East Malaysia to the west coast of the Philippine island of Mindanao are a no go zone. They are the domain of Abu Sayyaf and the Moro Islamic Action Front. These groups regularly participate in kidnappings in Malaysian Borneo, have been responsible for the wholesale slaughter of Philippine police officers attempting to arrest Zukifli Abdir. In case you are not familiar with this chap he is a terrorist bomb maker who escaped to the South-Western Philippines from Malaysia after he ended up on the FBIs most wanted list. He was the suspected leader of the Kumpulan Mujihadin Malaysia, a part of the South East Asian terrorist group Jemaah Islamiyah.
Referred to as JI, Jemaah Islamiyah desires to establish a Daulah Islamiyah (also known as a regional Islamic Caliphate) in South East Asia. A few of the things that JI have been involved in include the Bali bombings in 2002, in which many "infidels" perished and were wounded and the bombings of the Ritz Carlton and Marriot hotels in Jakarta in 2003.
How is this relevant to the Paris bombs, ISIS and the Middle East?
Let's start by taking a look at a profile of JI published by the BBC:
"Its goal is the establishment of an Islamic state across South East Asia. In its formative years JI advocated using largely peaceful means to pursue this goal, but in the mid-1990s the group took on a more violent edge.
This growing militancy was said to be nurtured in part through contacts between JI figures, and senior al-Qaeda members in Afghanistan."
If we dig a little deeper into that profile we discover this: "JI - whose name means Islamic Group in Arabic - is said to have been formed by a handful of exiled Indonesians based in Malaysia in the late 1980s."
This quite clearly demonstrates that Malaysia has been a safe haven for terrorists from elsewhere in the region for some time. It also shows us that the Islamists in the Middle East have been engaged in fostering the development of a caliphate here for a number of decades.
Let's take a look at Indonesia
The world's most populous Muslim country, the Indonesian archipelago divides Asia from Oceania. As well as having territory very close to the Australian landmass it is also responsible for Kalimantan in Borneo. Indonesia is immense, once you leave Jakarta and get out into the provinces (experience speaking) you find a devout Islamic population (the exceptions to this are the Island of Bali and the Indonesian territory of West Papua),
As far back as 2002 there were Jihadist training camps identified in Indonesia which were training European devotees in the art and mastery of mounting a holy war. It makes a lot of sense that this would be the case at that time in history (while America was demolishing the first tracts of the Middle East in the midst of its post-9/11 bloodlust - the first boots on the ground in Iraq were in July of 2002).
What about the northern bit of the Malaysian Peninsular?
In case you're not that familiar with the geography of the Malaysian Peninsular here's a quick primer. The states that border the federal territories (Wilayah Perseketuan) around Kuala Lumpur tend to be relatively moderate. They include Selangor, Negri Sembilan and other places with substantial ethnic Chinese and Indian populations. Heading south from the capital you move into Johor which borders Singapore. There is nothing overly remarkable about these states from an Islamic perspective apart from the fact that they are governed by the same Malaysian government that I profiled above.
Heading up the West Coast (following the National Highway) through Perak, Kedah and Perlis - all the way to Hat Yai in South Western Thailand it's also all reasonably safe. Where things start to get a bit hairy is when you head over to the eastern seaboard of West Malaysia.
If you take the E8 almost due East from Kuala Lumpur you'll drive through Pahang and, should you choose to turn left and head north the view outside the window (and the structure of society in general) starts to undertake a marked change. Once you're through Terengganu you'll enter a state called Kelantan. Kelantan is arguably the most openly Islamic of all Malaysian states.
So what's the big deal about Kelantan?
As far back as 1996 Kelantan was trying to implement full Sharia Law (kudos to Mahatir for reigning them in). As recently as 2010 the Kelantan government attempted to issue its own currency (The Kelantanese Dinar) with a view to having a "more Islamic financial system" in the state. It has long been a breeding ground for radical Islamics within Malaysia, until his retirement in 2013 the chief minister of Kelantan was Nik Aziz, a well known supporter of Sharia law. Kelantan is also well known for having a very Islam-centric education system and is the spiritual heart of the Parti Islam Se-Malaysia - also known as PAS. The most extreme of the Malaysian political parties when it comes to Islamic law.
Kelantan gets still more interesting when we look over the Gulok River and into the three southern Thai states of Narathiwat, Yala and Patani.
Ok, so now were in Thailand? How did that happen?
If you're not familiar with the South Thailand Insurgency I wouldn't blame you. If you read the travel advisory from almost any Western government it is highly likely that you'll find yourself being urged to take extreme caution in Narathiwat, Yala and Patani. (United Kingdom, New Zealand, United States, Canada).
The insurgency has claimed more than 5000 lives in these three states in the last decade. DW published a great article about "Thailand's smoldering insurgency" earlier this year. In article you'll read that the three southern states have a predominantly Malay, Muslim population. Thailand is a largely peaceful nation and one of the better developed South East Asian countries, here on the border between Indo China and racially Malay Asia it has some problems.
Home to over 150,000 Thai troops and police officers trying to keep the peace. These three provinces in Southern Siam are home to a conflict that has been going on between Islamists and the Thai government since 1948. In many ways this is very similar to what's happening in the southern Philippines where the Moro Islamic Liberation Front is basically appealing for independence - to the stage that the autonomous Bangsamoro region and the Bangsamoro Basic Law have been tabled in the country's senate.
So now it's time to tie it all together.
Let's just briefly recap the facts. With Brunei a very wealthy nation which is aspiring to be South East Asia's Muslim version of Singapore with well established ties to the Saudi regime (the Saudi actually gave advice on Sharia implementation at the request of the Sultan). Very near Brunei in the Southern Philippines we have the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and Abu Saayaf coming close to gaining some level of autonomy. On the island surrounding Brunei we have Islamists in Kalimantan campaigning for a caliphate and two states of Malaysia.
Borneo is the most logical staging ground for the establishment of a caliphate in South East Asia my mind, as we have seen with only a modest protest being put up when Brunei implemented Sharia Law (apparently John Legend checked out of a hotel in Beverly Hills he was so disgusted).
We then have the Muslim but not quite unless you're caught eating during Ramadan country of Malaysia sharing ground with Brunei and the state of Kalimantan which is part of the world's largest Mulsim country.
We have groups like JI, MILF and Abu Saayaf continuing about their business largely unchecked and - possibly most frightening - we have wanted Malaysian terrorists which are hiding in the "Bangsamoro Autonomous Region" proclaiming their desire to unite Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines under the ISIS banner.
Let's head back to Western Europe
The terror attacks that occurred in Paris in November of 2015 were horrific. France has a similar problem to Thailand and the Philippines in many ways. It has a marginalized Muslim population who do not feel that they are a part of the community (the second largest Muslim population in Europe).
The problem with Islam in France is that it is not only marginalised along with it's devotees but they tend to be so poorly integrated that they live in ghettos that really don't seem to feel like a part of France - not to them or the French population. Earlier this year (before the Charlie Hebdo attacks and the more recent incident) Steven Swinford of the Telegraph took at look at how many of these ghettos have become no go zones, not just for Non-Muslims but even for the police and emergency services.
Similar things have been recorded in Sweden where a total of 55 no go zones have been identified by the government. These no go zones around Sweden are effectively self governing. They are run by a sort of a Muslim mafia. No one trusts the authorities and outsiders are not allowed in. Even workers from the postal and ambulance services cannot enter without being attacked by the locals.
In Germany which is home to Europe's largest Muslim population the life of Muslims was referred as "life in a parallel universe" by Speigel. Here is a very telling quote from that article: "For some, Sonnenallee is a colorful, quirky shopping street. Others refer to it derisively as the Gaza Strip."
If we head across the English Channel to the thriving metropolis, and heart and hearth of most modern Western democracies outside of Europe, the city of London we find similar things happening.
What does all of this have to do with the title of this article?
If you've managed to mesh all this together you'll see a couple of things come to the fore about Muslim populations the world over. They are poorly integrated and marginalised unless they are in a Muslim country and they desire to be in power. The latter is probably largely symptomatic of the former but both hold true and both have left us with a huge problem. There are now large parts of the world (my semi-theoretical South East Asian caliphate is one example, there's another in North Africa and the Middle East) where these groups are separating themselves from the rest of the world. The ghettos in Sweden and France are extreme European examples and the Southern Philippines is an extreme Asian example.
I don't have any solutions to this problem but I think that in the aftermath of a tragedy like we've just been through one Friday night in Paris it is important not to get focused on the symptoms and instead understand the larger ramifications of what is going on, not just in Europe but globally.
Why the influx of refugees into Western Europe scares the hell out of me
Hoards of undocumented refugees being taken in by countries in Europe is only going to exacerbate the problem. As has recently come out at least two of the people involved are suspected to have come in via Greece, with one holding a Syrian passport (which may or may not be fake but that's not really the point). The attacks were apparently coordinated in Brussels and one of the attackers fled back through an open border. What European governments need to consider is that these people are not all fleeing from oppression. As much as it makes us feel good to help people who need it - who is to say that there are not already radicalised individuals among the refugees. I find it highly likely that this is the case actually. Let's take a look at a few references that helped convince me of this (beyond my own commonsense):
ISIS threatens to send 500,000 migrants to Europe as a 'psychological weapon' in chilling echo of Gaddafi's prophecy that the Mediterranean 'will become a sea of chaos - The Daily Mail, February 2015.
'Just wait…' Islamic State reveals it has smuggled THOUSANDS of extremists into Europe - The Express, November 2015
ISIS fears: Hungary TV report suggests 'militants' posing as refugees cross into Europe - RT, September 2015
As much as I have no desire to be alarmist, I fear that things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. The world is divided. The political and ideological crevasse that has separated Jerusalem from the Gaza Strip for so long seems to have grown into every part of life in every country in the world. Even as far afield as New Zealand and Australia religious violence is now a part of every day life.
If ISIS really has managed to deploy thousands of terrorists right into the heart of Western Europe as a part of this crisis, and anyone would have to think that to be terribly likely, then all I can say is hold onto your hats, and I wish you all the very best.
Published 17 November, 2015
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